As a result, there was no hurricane watch or warning in effect for Kauai until less than 24 hours before landfall. Few Central Pacific hurricanes take such a hard right turn, and model guidance for the region was very limited at the time. The most prominent is Hurricane Iniki, which made a 90-degree turn, then strengthened and slammed into Kauai from the south as a Category 4 storm on September 11, 1992, with top sustained winds of 145 mph. There are few analogs for a northward-bending hurricane affecting the Hawaiian islands, but the ones we do have are worrisome. Forecast uncertainty is larger than normal for Lane. The width of the cone is based on historical forecast errors for past tropical cyclones in this region. Forecast “cone of uncertainty” for Lane as of 5 pm EDT (11 am HST) Monday, August 20, 2018, issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. This is not an official forecast, but but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path. A sampling of the many track forecasts produced by various computer models for Hurricane Lane as of early Monday, August 20, 2018. The hurricane may take a sharp turn toward the west at some point after its northward jog, further complicating the track forecast.įigure 1. Nevertheless, the prudent course is to assume that Lane could maintain hurricane strength as it approaches Hawaii from the south or southeast. Later in the week, as steering currents weaken, Lane will undergo increasing southerly wind shear, which is likely to induce some weakening. Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate (10 knots or less) through at least Wednesday, which will further support Lane’s ability to maintain its strength. Moreover, Lane will encounter increasingly deep waters of at least 26☌ (79☏) as it approaches the islands.
These readings are about 0.5☌ above average, and they will be more than adequate to sustain Lane. Sea surface temperatures in the vicinity of Lane will remain in the 27-28☌ range (81-82☏) throughout the next several days. In its 5 pm EDT discussion, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center noted: ".in this situation, forecast confidence is lower than normal." The latter two models have also depicted a sharper right turn than the Euro. Over the last couple of days, all of the model track guidance has shifted gradually closer to Hawaii, although the usually reliable European model has consistently kept the hurricane further from the islands than the GFS and HWRF models. These interactions can be very difficult for global models to capture accurately, which adds an extra note of uncertainty to the track forecast. This, in turn, could help induce a stronger trough and a more pronounced break in the ridge downstream. As they move in parallel across Korea and Japan later this week (see below), they will pump up the western half of the ridge. Two of the wild-card factors are typhoons Soulik and Cimaron.
Lane’s turn will depend critically on how large a break develops in the ridge and exactly where the break is located. A break in this ridge is predicted to develop by midweek as a trough of low pressure digs into the Central Pacific. Lane is currently being steered by a broad upper-level ridge of high pressure that extends across most of the subtropical Pacific. Preparing for our second NOAA P-3 flight into Major Hurricane Lane in the Central Pacific! /Z25IyU0Ql9- HRD/AOML/NOAA August 20, 2018 The big questions are how soon the turn will happen, how sharp it will be, and how strong Lane will be if and when it reaches Hawaii. This will give it a better chance than Hector of affecting the islands directly. The difference this time is that steering currents will be weakening as Lane approaches Hawaii, so the hurricane is expected to begin arcing sharply northwestward by Wednesday. As of Monday, Lane’s current track was positioned about 175 miles south of Hector’s track-which might give you the impression Lane will pass well south of Hawaii. Lane is arriving hard on the heels of Hurricane Hector, which passed about 120 miles south of the Big Island as a Category 3 hurricane less than two weeks ago. Update: At 11 pm EDT Monday (5 pm HST), Lane's top winds remained 130 mph. Data from Hurricane Hunter flights into Lane on Sunday night and Monday confirmed that the hurricane was maintaining its strength. Lane’s top sustained winds had increased to 130 mph, making it a low-end Category 4 storm. As of 5 pm EDT Monday (11 am HST), Lane was located about 580 miles southeast of Hilo, heading west at 12 mph. Tropical storm and/or hurricane impacts are looking increasingly possible for parts of Hawaii as ferocious Hurricane Lane continues to chug across the central Pacific. Above: Infrared image of Hurricane Lane at 2100Z (5 pm EDT) Monday, August 20, 2018.
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